{"id":479,"date":"2017-12-28T12:25:01","date_gmt":"2017-12-28T17:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/?p=479"},"modified":"2017-12-28T16:34:27","modified_gmt":"2017-12-28T21:34:27","slug":"will-the-protectionist-us-powder-keg-be-lit-in-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/2017\/12\/28\/will-the-protectionist-us-powder-keg-be-lit-in-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Protectionist US Powder Keg Be Lit in 2018?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will the Protectionist US Powder Keg Be Lit in 2018?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The United States has initiated policies and started processes that threaten a very protectionist 2018.<\/p>\n

During 2017, the Trump Administration laid down many ominous protectionist markers.\u00a0 Will some prove to be no more than negotiating pawns, or will the Trump Administration stand its ground and follow through on some or many?\u00a0 And, are there more initiatives to come?\u00a0 Many face opposition domestically, including from Republicans.\u00a0 US trade partners see grounds for retaliation.<\/p>\n

The insanely aggressive US positions put forward in the NAFTA renegotiation top the list of protectionist positions from a Canadian perspective.<\/p>\n

Then, there are the separate ongoing countervail and dumping complaints filed by US industry against a Bombardier aircraft and Canadian softwood lumber imports.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration also self-initiated cases in April 2017 against world-wide steel and aluminium imports.\u00a0 The test is whether domestic supplies can meet national security requirements.\u00a0 This rarely used trade law provision was hatched 55 years ago during the Cold War.\u00a0 The Commerce Department must report by January 2018.<\/p>\n

Two major so-called Section 201 safeguard decisions will reach President Trump\u2019s desk in early 2018. \u00a0These are the first cases initiated since 2001. \u00a0By January 12, the President must rule on whether to proceed with any policy action on imports of solar panels.\u00a0 Then, he has a February 3 deadline for washing machine imports.\u00a0 A wide range of options for action are available, typically tariffs, quotas, or voluntary export restraints.\u00a0 In both cases, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) has determined that there has been injury to the US industry.<\/p>\n

At the World Trade Organization (WTO), the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, has been playing games and threatening the future functioning of the respected and necessary WTO dispute settlement process by refusing to endorse needed new members to serve on dispute settlement panels.\u00a0 In his remarks at the December 2017 WTO ministerial meeting, Lighthizer questioned whether the longstanding WTO litigation structure makes sense.\u00a0 He provocatively said, \u201cToo often members seem to believe they can gain concessions through lawsuits that they could never get at the negotiating table.\u201d<\/p>\n

A much less widely reported Trump Administration directive led to the launch in December of an initiative by the US Interior Secretary, Ryan Zinke, to address US dependence on foreign supplies of critical minerals, judged critical to national security, such as those used in smartphones, computers and military equipment.\u00a0 Within 60 days, a list is to be published of non-fuel minerals vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and necessary for manufacturing.\u00a0 This will lead to strategies to lessen US dependence on foreign suppliers.<\/p>\n

The US Tax Reform \u2013 now signed into law \u2013 also has provisions that the US has been warned offend its WTO obligations.\u00a0 Among other things, the legislation has a provision that taxes a US company\u2019s exports of \u201cintangibles\u201d at around a lower 13% rate against a 21% general rate.\u00a0 \u201cIntangibles\u201d include patents, trademarks and know-how.\u00a0 The European Commission alleges that this appears to be an export subsidy that will give US firms an advantage in international markets, including in Europe.\u00a0 Observers compare the new preferential rate to a previous US incentive offered from 1986 to 2006 via a special Foreign Sales Corporation which led to a lengthy high profile trade spat between the European Union and the US \u2013 and ultimately to a WTO judgement in 2000 against the US.<\/p>\n

Of overarching concern, beyond these threatening actions and processes, has been continued Presidential protectionist rhetoric and pointed Twitter threats directed at US and foreign companies designed to pressure them to think only of the US in making their investment, procurement and hiring decisions.\u00a0 What company with an interest in the US market would announce a new plant in Mexico or move production out of the US?<\/p>\n

The list is long.\u00a0 Ominously, it is a product of \u201cMake America Great\u201d political promises which President Trump will want to point to honouring.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will the Protectionist US Powder Keg Be Lit in 2018? The United States has initiated policies and started processes that threaten a very protectionist 2018. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,13,14,4,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international-relations","category-nafta","category-protectionism","category-trade-invest","category-wto"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9vruN-7J","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=479"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/479\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":486,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/479\/revisions\/486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.w2n2.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}